“天鸽”台风风暴潮预报及数值研究

摘要

The storm surge of "Hato" typhoon is briefly introduced and simulated with different numerical models.It is found that the intensity of the typhoon given by the CMA is obviously lower than the actual situation.The maximum intensity of the'Hato'typhoon had probably reached super typhoon intensity before and after its landing.More attention should be paid to such intensity abrupt-change typhoon surge in China.%介绍1713号“天鸽”台风风暴潮过程,并利用不同数值模型对整个台风风暴潮过程进行了后报检验,从风速和风暴潮实况角度发现中央气象台给出的台风强度弱于实况,并依据风暴潮实况分析出了“天鸽”台风可能的最大强度,指出“天鸽”登陆前后强度很可能已经达到超强台风级别,对于此类我国近海突变型台风风暴潮过程需要引起风暴潮预报工作者的高度关注.