中国就业结构演变及其动因分解——基于投入占用产出模型的分析

摘要

This paper studies evolution and motivations of employment in China in 2002-2012,by using Structural Decomposition Analysis(SDA) based on input-occupancy-output technology.It reveals the trend of China's total employment and driving forces in China's different industries.The results show that China's total employment grew by 4.7％ in 10 years.Employment structure changed a lot as employment transferred from agriculture to the second and third industries.Change in consumption,investment,export,import,employment coefficient and technology made employment rise by 74.3％,60.6％,27.6％,-25.2％,-143.7％ and 10.4％ respectively.Consumption growth was the first factor of promoting employment,mainly to promote employment in labor-intensive manufacture and knowledge-intensive service industry.Increasing investment created more employment opportunities in construction,resource-intensive,capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries.International trade promoted employment in labor-intensive and technology-intensive manufacture and service industries.Although technology change decreased the total employment,especially in agriculture by employment coefficient change,that in knowledge-intensive service increased a lot due to technology improvement in intermediate use network.%本文研究了2002-2012年中国就业总量与结构的演变历程,并基于投入占用产出技术构建结构分解模型(SDA)定量测度了各产业就业变化的动因.研究结果显示,10年间中国的就业总规模增长了4.7％.就业结构不断改善,由第一产业不断向第二产业和第三产业转移.消费、投资、出口、进口、就业系数和技术的变化这六项因素的变化使就业人数分别增长了74.3％、60.6％、27.6％、-25.2％、-143.7％和10.4％.消费增长带动了劳动密集型制造业与知识密集型服务业就业比例上升,投资增长带动了资源型产业、资本、技术密集型制造业和建筑业就业比例上升,进出口贸易是劳动、技术密集型制造业和其他服务业比例提升的主要因素.技术进步导致就业减少,尤其是就业系数的降低使农业就业人数下降最为明显,但与中间使用网络有关的技术变迁却是知识密集型服务业比例提升的主要因素.