经济虚拟化背景下经济增长与通货膨胀的互动机制研究

摘要

在虚拟经济快速发展的背景下,经济虚拟化程度已成为经济增长与通货膨胀二者关系不容忽视的影响因素.本文以美国从工业化时期发展演变到经济虚拟化时期的过程为研究对象,通过滚动时窗的贝叶斯网络学习,研究了经济虚拟化背景下经济增长与通货膨胀二者之间的动态互动机制,发现虚拟经济与实体经济之间的互动关系变得越来越紧密,以债券市场、股票市场、房地产市场的顺序,虚拟经济相关指标逐步进入经济增长与通货膨胀的传导机制.%With the rapid development of fictitious economy,the financialization degree can no longer be ignored for its influence on the relationship between economic growth and inflation.In consideration of the evolvement from the period of industrialization to economic financialization of the U.S.,through the Bayesian network learning of rolling time window,we concentrate on the dynamic interaction mechanism between economic growth and inflation under the background of economic financialization.It turns out that the interactive relationship between fictitious economy and real economy is becoming closer and closer.Furthermore,in the order of bond,stock and real estate market,indicators related to fictitious economy gradually enter into the transmission mechanism of economic growth and inflation.