改进的计划评审技术在大型复杂项目进度管理中的应用

摘要

To settle the issue on schedule management in large complex project, this paper establishes the PERT BN model where the program evaluation and review technique (PERT) improved based on Bayesian network (BN) is applied for analysis, control and optimization of project schedule. This paper gives out the fundamental definition of PERT BN and details of inclusive nodes, oriented edges and conditional probability. The PERT BN case study is implemented based on the experimental network diagram of R & D project for certain model. Finally, it takes the model as the example to analyze the impacts of external factors such as people, cost and technology to the process duration and the impacts of changed total project duration changes to the demanded resources.%针对大型复杂项目进度管理中存在的问题,提出了PERT BN模型,其基于贝叶斯网络(BN)而改进的PERT,用于项目进度分析、控制及优化.给出了PERT BN的基本定义,并详述了其包含的节点、有向边和条件概率.然后,以某型号研制项目实验网络图为例,建立起对应的PERT BN模型实例.最后,以模型实例为基础,分析了人、成本和技术等外界因素对工序持续时间的影响,以及总工期变化时对资源的需求变化情况.