物流业与三次产业发展的互动关系实证研究

摘要

以物流业和三次产业为研究对象,运用计量经济理论的模型和方法,对中国1978～2009年物流业与三个产业发展的协整与因果互动机制进行了实证分析.研究结果表明:从协整检验和误差修正模型看,中国物流业与三次产业之间呈现出比较稳定的长期均衡发展趋势,短期波动也起着正的影响作用；从格兰杰因果关系检验看,中国物流业与第一产业和第二产业有单向的因果关系,与第三产业有双向因果关系.%The logistics industry and the tertiary industries as the study objects, the paper uses the models and methods of econometrics to analyze the co-integration and causal mechanism of the interaction between the development of the logistics industry and the tertiary industries. The result shows that the co-integration test and vector error correction model indicate there exists a relatively stable equilibrium state between the development of the logistics industry and the tertiary industries in China and the short-term fluctuations have strong positive effect on the development; the Granger causality test indicates that the logistics industry is in uni-directional causal relationships with the first and secondary industries and bi-directional with the tertiary industries.