基于多变量灰色模型算法的物流需求预测研究

摘要

In this paper based on multi-parameter grey model algorithm and with the forecasting of logistics demand as the objective,we studied the line of thought and method for the establishment of the multi-parameter grey model GM (1,n) for logistics demand forecasting,and,then through a specific algorithm,built a specific logistics demand GM (1,3).Through residual test and analysis,we found that it had good feasibility and practicality in the forecasting of logistics demand and for the model,the raw sample needed was small in quantity,and the forecasting precision was high.%基于多变量灰色模型算法,以物流需求预测为目标,研究探讨了物流需求预测的多变量灰色模型GM(1,n)的构建思路与方法,并通过具体的算例,构建了一个物流需求GM(1,3)模型,给出了该模型的构建步骤和过程,通过残差检验和分析得出,该模型对物流需求预测有着较好的可行性和实用性,且使用该模型预测时所需原始样本数据量小,预测精度较高,无论是对物流需求的宏观长期预测,还是对微观短期的物流需求预测都具有一定的适用性.