基于无偏灰色马尔科夫模型的新疆物流需求量预测

摘要

In this paper, we selected the freight volume as the indicator of the logistics demand and with the freight volume of Xinjiang for the period between 2001 and 2014 as the raw data sequence, built the unbiased grey Markov model to forecast the freight volume of the region in the"thirteenth five planning"period. At the end, through empirical application, we demonstrated the high accuracy and strong practicality of the model.%选取货运量来表征物流需求，用新疆2001-2014年货运量作为原始数据序列，建立无偏灰色马尔科夫预测模型，对“十三五”期间的货运量进行预测。模型的检验结果表明：均方差比值和小误差概率均为一级，相对误差为二级。模型提高了货运量预测的精确度，平均精度达到98.7%，表明此模型对于货运量的预测有很强的实用性。