我国商贸流通产业影响力的动态变迁：库茨涅兹理论的检验

摘要

In this paper, according to the Feeder model, we built the framework of the model for the influence power of the commercial circulation industry on the national economy, then in connection with the Kuznets theory, analyzed the extent of the influence of the industry on the Chinese economy, and then on such basis, built a model to describe the overall influence of the commercial circulation industry, extended it into a state-space model to analyze the dynamic evolutionary pattern of the influence power of the commercial circulation industry on the national economy of China, verifying that the change pattern complied with the inversed U hypothesis of the Kuznets theory. At the end, in view of the fact that the room for improving the influence power of the commercial circulation industry is more and more restricted, we suggested that the influence power of the industry should be gradually transformed into an indirect driving force which could lead the intensive innovation-based development of the economy.%根据Feder理论模型，构建了商贸流通业对国民经济影响力的模型框架，结合库茨涅兹理论，分析商贸流通产业对国民经济的影响力；在此基础上，建立了包含商贸流通产业整体影响力的模型，并扩充为状态空间模型，分析了我国商贸流通产业对国民经济的影响力的动态演变特征，证实了这种时变特征符合库茨涅兹的“倒U型”假说。且这种影响力主要取决于直接效应，间接效应的贡献相对较低。而当前商贸流通业直接影响力的提升空间不断压缩，针对此提出了将商贸流通业的影响力逐步转向由间接效应驱动，形成内涵式创新发展新格局的发展建议。