信息共享对供应链牛鞭效应减弱效果分析

摘要

In this paper,the bullwhip effect generated from the non-sharing information in supply chain was first discussed.And then,the retailers in the downstream of a two-stage supply chain were discussed.As for a steady demand,the exponential smoothing approach was adopted for short-term demand forecast,and the bullwhip effect of retailers and suppliers at the stage of information forecast stage and processing stage in a simple supply chain of a retailer and a supplier was analyzed quantitatively.Then,it can be concluded that the establishment of information sharing system of enterprises on the supply chain can significantly decrease the negative impact from the bullwhip effect.Finally,the paper furthers analyzed the establishment of information sharing system of case enterprises,and also probed into managerial implications.%首先讨论了供应链中由于信息的不共享性而产生的牛鞭效应。其次讨论在两级供应链中下游零售商,在面临需求平稳时,采用指数平滑法进行短期需求预测,量化分析了一个供应商和一个零售商的简单供应链中零售商和供应商在需求信息预测阶段和信息处理阶段的牛鞭效应,得出建立供应链企业信息共享系统,可以显著减弱牛鞭效应带来的负面影响。接着对案例企业构建企业信息共享系统作出讨论,对构建策略进行了一定的探索。