上海市金融业发展是否促进了实体经济增长

摘要

文中选用上海市1990－2015年的相关数据，分别以金融相关率、保险市场规模和股票市场规模作为衡量银行、保险和证券业的相关变量，以便综合反映整个上海市的金融业发展水平，并运用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰检验等多种方法，实证分析上海市金融业发展与实体经济增长之间的相关关系和因果关系。研究显示：上海市的金融相关率、股票市场规模和保险市场规模与实体经济增长之间均存在长期均衡关系且呈现正相关关系，但是不存在任何方向上的格兰杰因果关系。这表明，上海市金融发展能够促进实体经济的增长，但是作用尚不够明显。%This article selects the related data of Shanghai from 1990 to 2015,with Financial Interrelations Ratio,insurance market scale and stock market scale as related variables of measuring banking,insurance and securities,to reflect financial industry development level of the entire city of Shanghai comprehensively.And we empirically analysis the correlation and causal relationship between financial industry development and the growth of the real economy by using Unite Root Test,Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test.The results show that there are long-term equilibrium relationships and positive correlations between Financial Interrelations Ratio,insurance market scale,stock market scale and the real economic growth of Shanghai respectively.But there is no Granger causality in any direction.This suggests that Shanghai's financial development can promote the growth of the real economy,but not obvious.