城镇化进程与产业结构升级的动态关系探析——以重庆市28区县面板数据为例

摘要

党的十八大以来,中央明确提出要将推动城镇化和优化产业结构作为促进经济结构战略调整的重要举措.为探析城镇化进程与产业结构升级之间的动态关系,文中选取重庆市28个区县1999-2014年的面板数据,建立面板向量自回归模型.实证研究发现:城镇化和产业结构升级之间相互影响,短期内具有一定的时滞性,长期来看产业结构升级对城镇化的积极推动作用更为明显.%Promoting urbanization and optimizing the industrial structure are raised as a important measure to since the 18th CPC National Congress.To research the dynamic relationship between urbanization and industrial structure,the 1999-2014 years of panel data,which belongs to 28 cities of Chongqing,is selected,then panel vector autoregression model to analysis the relationship is built about urbanization and upgrading of the industrial structure.The results showed that,urbanization and industrial structure upgrading influence each other;the Time-lag effect appears in a short-term while it is more statistically significant that industrial structure upgrading is pushing urbanization in a long-tern.