试探基于似然比区分枪种的数理方法

摘要

With the judicial expertise in the likelihood ratio method to express evidence based,evidence of the forensic evidence are gradually inclined to use mathematical probability and logic rules.Through the review of the research and application of likelihood ratio results in DNA test,ultrasonic inspection,examination such as evidence of science,based on the type 54 pistol,79 micro submachine gun and type 85 submachine gun using likelihood ratio area 51 7.62mm pistol bomb warhead marks and the arc bump meet top trace observation,statistical analysis,try to use the Bayesian principle to distinguish the purpose of a gun.%随着司法鉴定专家以似然比方式表述证据性的依据,物证的司法鉴定证据力都逐渐倾向于用数学概率逻辑规则呈现.笔者通过查阅似然比在DNA检验、声像检验、笔迹检验等物证学中的应用和研究成果,通过对54式手枪、79式微型冲锋枪和85式微型冲锋枪射击利用似然比进行区五一式7.62mm手枪弹的弹头顶部碰面痕和弧形部磕碰痕迹观察、分析、统计,尝试运用贝叶斯原理达到区分枪种的目的.