农业现代化、新型工业化与城镇化协调发展研究——基于中国1998—2015年三大经济地带的面板数据分析

摘要

文章以中国大陆三大经济地带的31个省(直辖市﹑自治区)1998—2015年面板数据为样本,运用PVAR模型研究农业现代化﹑新型工业化与城镇化的长期均衡关系.研究表明:(1)静态依赖性受经济发展阶段和区域功能定位影响,全国整体呈现正向作用,表明农业机械程度在提高,区域之间差异显著;(2)全国整体显示农业现代化与新型工业化正向作用,中部地带正处于工业化进程,新型工业化对农业现代化需求弹性最高,而西部地带和东部地带需求弹性都小;(3)整体来讲全国城镇化变化正向促进农业现代化,区域之间差异不明显.同时,提出相应建议.%In China,the three major economic zones of 31 each autonomous region from1998 to 2015 panel data as sample,paper use PVAR model to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship of agricul-tural modernization,new industrialization and urbanization.Research shows that:1)the static dependence is affected by the economic development stage and the regional functional orientation,and the whole coun-try has a positive effect;2)the whole show the positive effect of agricultural modernization and new indus-trialization,the middle zone with the process of industrialization is the highest demand elasticity,western region and eastern region have small demand elasticity;3)As a whole,the change of urbanization in China is promoting agricultural modernization,which is no difference between regions.At the same time,put for-ward corresponding suggestions.