基于LUCC的秦淮河流域暴雨洪水响应分析

摘要

利用CA-Markov模型预测流域2028年土地利用情况,设置3种土地利用情景(自然发展情景、林地限制情景、水田限制情景),建立研究区HEC-HMS水文模型,研究秦淮河流域高速城市化背景下土地利用变化的暴雨洪水响应机制.结果表明:①HEC-HMS模型适用于研究区洪水模拟及不同土地利用情景下的洪水响应研究;②洪水规模越小,对土地利用变化的洪水响应越强;③随着流域城市化的演进,土地利用对暴雨洪水的影响程度呈增大趋势,其中自然发展情景下的增加程度最大,水田限制情景次之,林地限制情景最低.研究成果为秦淮河流域LUCC的暴雨洪水响应分析提供了新的思路,也对流域防洪规划与建设有一定的指导意义.%An HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System)is built to research the rainstorm flood response mechanism of Qinhuai river drainage basin in the background of rapid urbanization.Three land use scenarios are set in the model:natural development scenario,woodland restrictive policy scenario, and paddy field restrictive policy scenario in the year 2028 predicted by CA-Markov model.The HEC-HMS model is calibrated and validated to be applicable for flood simulation and flood response research under different land use scenarios.Results implies that the smaller the flood scale,the stronger the flood response.With the development of urbanization,the impact of land use on rainstorm flood aggrandizes:the future flood peak and flood volume increase the most sharply under natural development scenario,followed by those under paddy field policy scenario and wood-land policy scenario.The research findings provide a new idea for the analysis of storm flood response of land use cover change in the Qinhuai River basin,and also have some guiding significance for flood control planning and construction of the basin.