基于非限制性向量自回归模型（VAR）的区域物流与外贸增长关系研究--以江苏省1990-2010年统计数据为经验分析

摘要

Based on 1990~2010 data of Jiangsu Province , increasing supply and demand of logistics each 1%will promotes growth 0. 435%and 0.337%of foreign trade in long run by the cointegration equation estimating relationship between the regional logistics and foreign trade;Increasing supply and demand of logistics industry is an effective way improving trade growth in Jiangsu Province by error correction model impulse response function and variance decomposition model analyzing short -term dynamic relationship between region-al logistics and foreign trade .Therefore , in order to meet demand of foreign trade about logistics , local government should further de-velop modern logistics industry;in particular , increase the supply capacity of the logistics industry .%基于江苏省1990-2010年的统计样本，借助非限制性向量自回归模型（ VAR）方法考察了区域物流与对外贸易增长之间的动态关系。由协整方程对长期关系分析表明，区域物流供给与需求能力每增加（减少）1％引起对外贸易增加（减少）0．435％和0．337％；由误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对短期动态关系作进一步分析表明，增加区域物流供给和需求能力是提高对外贸易增长的有效途径，其中物流供给比需求对对外贸易的贡献率更大。为了使区域物流发展水平与对外贸易相适应，应进一步发展现代物流业，特别是增加物流业的供给能力。