多维嵌套期权的煤炭资源开发投资决策模型

摘要

Since traditional DCF can' t capture the flexibility in the process of investing according to the continuous information. Based on the perception of real option, the decision on the development of coal mine is to distinguish and utilize the dynamic process of real options such as options to defer, expand and close, and so on. This thesis insert these options into the formation of the free current flow in coal resource development projects, and set up the decision model of coal resource development investment. Through an example, this model is put into use. The results of data intimation indicate that considering the operating flexibility as a whole could fully reflect the value of coal resource development project.%由于传统的DCF方法无法根据新信息的不断出现适切地捕捉整个煤炭资源开发投资过程中存在的经营柔性,从而回避煤炭资源开发投资项目中存在的风险和低估项目价值.基于实物期权视角,煤炭资源开发投资决策实际上就是识别和利用延迟期权、扩张期权、收缩期权、停启期权、放弃期权等实物期权的动态过程.本文将上述实物期权嵌入煤炭资源开发项目自由现金流量的形成过程,从整体上建立了基于多维嵌套期权的煤炭资源开发投资决策模型.通过一实例对该模型进行了运用,数据模拟结果表明从整体上考虑经营柔性能充分反映煤炭资源开发投资项目的价值.