Aiming at the serious damage of the coastal economic system and marine ecological environment caused by the oil spill accidents of ships and taking the 80 000-ton chemical port in Fang Cheng-gang as an example, two risk factors including the probability of oil spill pollution in the port area and the shortest time of oil spill pollution are analyzed on the condition that the related factors of the running track of oil spill are affected by the changed flow and wind.Meanwhile, the analysis is based on the model of tidal current diffusion and drift, and the stochastic simulation method is used.Thereby, the risk of environmental sensitive resources after the oil spill accidents can be evaluated and determined.%针对船舶溢油事故对沿海经济体系及海洋生态环境所造成的严重损害,以防城港8万t级化工码头为研究对象,基于潮流扩散、漂移等模型,采用随机统计模拟法,在变化潮流、风力等影响溢油运行轨迹的相关因素情况下,对港口区域溢油污染的概率及溢油污染的最短时间2个风险因素进行统计与分析,确定评价码头发生溢油事故后对环境敏感资源的风险大小.
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