土石坝坝坡失稳模糊风险分析

摘要

Based on the uncertainty analysis for the instability risk of dam slope,the slope instability risk model is established with the fuzziness of parameters in the design and the expectation of dam＇s effective working life limit.Furthermore,Monte Carlo Method based on MATLAB is used to work out the risk probability.When all the fuzzy parameters are made to be fuzzy,the traditional methods available for calculating the risk can be used directly to work out the probability of failure.The results show that taking into account the fuzziness in the risk analysis of dam slope instability would make the calculation result more reasonable and closer to reality.%通过对土石坝坝坡失稳风险的不确定性进行分析,建立了考虑设计参数模糊性和失效准则模糊性的坝坡失稳模糊风险模型,并运用蒙特卡罗方法求解其风险概率,将模糊参数进行模糊化处理后,可直接采用现有传统风险计算方法计算失事概率。结果表明,坝坡失稳风险分析中考虑了风险的模糊性使计算结果更加合理,风险评价更加符合工程实际。