CLIGEN模型主要降雨参数精度评价

摘要

选择川中丘陵区内江气象站作为研究对象,对CLIGEN模型(v5.22564)内置的无插值、线性插值和傅里叶插值3种算法生成的主要降雨参数进行了精度评价.研究结果表明,CLIGEN模型(v5.22564)在内江地区模拟结果较好,3种算法模拟的降雨天数、降雨事件概率、年均降雨量、季度降雨量、月降雨量分布和相对误差等降雨参数均较合理.相比傅里叶插值法和线性插值算法,模型内置的无插值算法所得的结果与实际观测值更接近,说明在气候特征变化不异常的气象站点用模型内置的无插值算法模拟精度更高.但是3种算法模拟的部分参数如年降雨量标准差、季节降雨(特别是夏季降雨)标准差和年降雨极值等,其结果值偏低.%The CLIGEN model (v5.22564) has been used to assess the precision of major precipitation parameters in the Neijiang city of the sichuan hilly basin based on interpolation-simple linear interpolation,Fourier series and a modified linear interpolation.The simulated results show that the rainfall days,rainfall probability of the event,the volume of rainfall et al.,are reasonable.The results derived by non-interpolation method are closer to the real value compared with those derived by Fourier interpolation and linear interpolation,but the other values,such as the standard deviations for annual rainfall and seasonal rainfall and the extreme rainfall events,are lower than the real values.Because of the Sichuan hilly basin has been influenced by the southwest monsoon and the cyclones from the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau,the area has heavy rainfall intensity for summer days,while the CLIGEN model was established by using the climate data of the United States climate station,where the climate is characterized by medium and light rainfall intensity.This is the cause of the lower results for those parameters.