非严格优先权下许可相位左转车辆侵占时距分布模型

摘要

A new concept,encroaching time interval,is proposed to describe the micro-characteristic of the permitted left-turning flow under non-strict priority.According to different locations of crossing-through vehicles when left-turns are crossing through,there are four traffic statuses.Then seven distribution models are used to analyze the encroaching time interval with a large number of measured data.Parameters in these models are solved by the maximum likelihood estimation method.And the goodness of fit to these models is given by KolmogorovSmirnov test.The Log-Logistic model is found to be the best choice in different kinds of traffic status.And its parameter values are heavily correlated to different traffic status.At last,a verification test is conducted at other two intersections.The result shows the applicability of the Log-Logistic model in describing the encroaching time interval distribution.%提出侵占时距的概念来描述非严格优先权下许可相位左转车流的微观特性,并根据左转车辆通过时,交叉口内对向直行车辆的不同存在形式,划分成了4种交通状态.基于大量的实测数据,利用7种不同的模型对侵占时距分布进行拟合.采用最大似然估计法进行参数估计,通过Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验对不同模型在不同状态下的拟合优度进行判定.最终得到Log-Logistic模型对不同交通状态下的拟合效果最优,并且其模型参数值的大小与对向直行车辆的不同存在状态有关.最后,选取了2个交叉口作为验证组,验证了Log-Logistic模型在不同交叉口不同交通状态下的适用性.