基于模糊层次分析法的枯水期长江通航风险评价研究

摘要

长江干线水路运输在服务沿江经济发展的同时,其通航风险也得到了越来越多的关注,特别是枯水季节带来的航道出浅、船舶搁浅等问题.文中结合离散模糊集和层次分析法,利用专家调查数据从人、船舶、环境和管理4个角度对可能影响枯水期长江干线水上交通风险的因素进行了逐层分析.研究结果表明,遵守法律法规、船员适任、通航尺度以及船舶适航这4个因素对枯水期通航风险的总贡献率达到了55％以上,是枯水期长江通航风险的关键要素.利用风险识别的结果对风险控制方案的效用进行了比选,实现了基于风险评价的决策支持.%With the development of waterway transportation of Yangtze River,its navigational safety attracts increasing concerns,particularly during the dry season,which always results in channel congestion and ship grounding.With respect to experts' judgments,this paper incorporates discrete fuzzy sets and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the navigational risk assessment of Yangtze River in dry season,considering influencing factors of human,vessel,environment and management.The result shows that the top four safety critical factors are Safety Awareness,Qualification,Channel Dimension and Seaworthiness,with a total contribution of more than 55％ to navigational risk.Furthermore,the risk-based decision making is achieved through Risk Control Options (RCOs) selection with respect to the result of risk identification.