基于 AHP 法的高速公路风险驾驶行为要素分析

摘要

采用层次分析法建立高速公路风险驾驶行为要素的层次结构模型，对提出高速公路的安全管理对策、降低高速公路交通事故率具有重要意义。通过专家打分确定模型的判断矩阵，计算层次结构模型各级元素的单排序权重和组合权重，并对高速公路风险驾驶行为各要素的相对重要性进行排序。分析此层次结构模型的计算结果，发现换道频繁(变换车道行为)是高速公路上风险性最高的驾驶行为，并探讨了减少风险驾驶行为的安全对策。分析过程为高速公路风险驾驶行为要素的评价提供了新思路，研究结论可以为高速公路交通管理部门提供有效建议，减少高速公路上驾驶人的风险驾驶行为，显著提高高速公路的安全水平。%In order to propose safety management measures for freeways and reduce accidents,a hierarchical model of risky driving behaviors on freeways based on an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)is established.The matrices for judging whether driving behaviors are risky are determined by expert scoring.Then,the sorted single weight and com-bined weight of elements at all levels of the model are calculated.Then,the relative importance of risk driving behaviors on freeways is sorted.It shows that frequent lane change (lane change behavior)is the driving behavior of the highest risk.Finally,the measures to reduce risky driving behaviors on freeway are discussed.The proposed analysis process pro-vides a new method to evaluate the risky driving behaviors on freeways,and the findings from this paper can advise the drivers about which types of behaviors are more risky and the level of safety on freeways could be improved accordingly.