基于计划延误成本的出发时间选择模型

摘要

出行时间不确定性对出行者造成诸多负面影响,其中之一就是计划延误成本增加.向出行者提供交通信息可减少出行时间不确定性的负面影响,减少计划延误成本.为了估计其负面效应和出行时间信息的价值,研究了一个出行时间不确定性下的出发时间选择模型.假定在不同的出发时间下,出行时间分布的形式不同.模型中出行者可得到交通信息服务系统(A T IS)提供的基于平均出行状况的交通信息或基于当日出行状况的交通信息,同时他对得到的信息有自己的感知值,基于此感知预测出行时间并选择出发时间.用算例反映了出行时间不确定性、不同信息状况和信息预测的质量对出行者广义出行阻抗的影响.结果表明交通信息的收益不应该只表现为传统的出行时间节省,它还能减少约30% ~40% 的计划延误成本.%Uncertain travel time can lead to negative effects.One of which is the increasing of schedule delay cost. Transportation information provided to travelers can reduce the negative effects and the schedule delay cost.In order to e-valuate the negative effects and the value of transportation information,a model for departure time selection with uncer-tain travel time is developed.Assuming that the distribution of travel time is different for different departure time,travel-ers can obtain average travel conditions or traffic information based on daily status from Advanced Traffic Information System(ATIS).A traveler predicts his/her travel time and selects departure time based on perceived value of that infor-mation from ATIS.A case study verifies the influences of uncertain travel time,different information conditions,and the quality of forecasts on general travel costs of travelers.The results show that the benefits of traffic information should not only be reflected in saving of travel time,but also in reducing schedule delay costs by about 30% ~40%.