2013年以后欧盟和欧元区进入缓慢复苏的后欧债危机时期。在经济领域，呈现经济增长缓慢且脆弱、通货紧缩、失业和公共债务趋降但仍高、外贸增长、成员国差异仍巨等景象。在社会领域，社会贫富差距扩大与民众社会公正呼吁日增，陷入紧缩社保和安抚受损民众的两难选择之中。探究其成因，经济领域在以容克计划和量化宽松政策主导的欧盟经济政策促进了经济复苏的同时，难民、英国脱欧等事件阻缓复苏进程，加之科研创新不足、欧盟本身的机制缺陷以及世界经济与贸易增速下滑、货币政策负面外溢效果等外部干扰频频。在社会领域，全球化和老龄化的冲击给欧洲社会带来极大挑战。展望未来，短期内可能出现紊动但维持低速增长态势；中期则有望缓慢爬升复苏，社会冲突有望得到一定缓解。%Since 2013,the European Union and Euro area have entered the post-sovereign debt crisis period and the overall recovery has been rather modest.The slow and fragile economic growth is characterized by deflation,decline but still high-level unemployment rates and public debt,increase of trade,and huge differences across member states.In social affairs,the continuously widening social wealth gap and more intensive appeals for social justice left European countries in a dilemma between austerity policy for social welfare reforms and relief policy to appease distressed people.This situation can be explained by the following causes:In terms of economy,the EU economic policies dominated by the Juncker Plan and quantitative easing has promoted its economic recovery to some extent,but this recovery has been dragged into sluggishness and fragility by a variety of factors,including a series of disruptive crises such as the refugee crisis and Brexit,insufficient investment in research and innovation,and the inherent defects of EU mechanisms,as well as the external factors such as the weak world economy and global trade,and the negative spillover effects of monetary policies.In terms of social affairs,the shocks brought by globalization and population ageing have posed great challenges to European society.In future,a modest economic growth is expected in the short term with mild fluctuations,but will accelerate in the medium term,which may mitigate social conflicts.
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