首页> 中文期刊> 《通化师范学院学报》 >丝绸之路经济带背景下新疆经济增长与物流供给关系的实证研究--以投资、消费、出口为视角

丝绸之路经济带背景下新疆经济增长与物流供给关系的实证研究--以投资、消费、出口为视角

         

摘要

With the advance of the Silk Road economic belt strategy, the domestic and foreign demand caused by the investment, consumption and export produce a large amount of logistics demand by means of geo-graphical advantages of Xinjiang, the interactive logistics supply and demand indirectly promote eco-nomic growth. This article analyses the quantitative relationship among the logistics supply, investment, consumption and exports by means of employing the co-integration, VECM and Granger causality test based on VECM in Xinjiang, the results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among these variables, the investment or consumption increased by 1%will increase by 0.709% or 0.257% of logistics supply, 1% export demand will reduce 0.063% of logistics supply pressure. The Granger causality test based on VECM indicates that the logistics supply is the cause of investment, the invest-ment is the reason of export, so logistics supply is the indirect cause of exports in the short term and long term.%在国家开发丝绸之路经济带战略的推进下,新疆凭借地缘优势,其投资、消费和出口引致的内外需求产生了大量物流需求,物流供需的互动间接地促进经济增长。利用协整、VECM和基于VECM的Granger因果检验实证分析了新疆投资、消费和出口与物流供给之间的数量关系。结果表明新疆的物流供给、投资、消费和出口之间存在长期均衡关系,投资或消费每增加1%,将增加0.709%或0.257%的物流供给,1%的出口需求将减轻0.063%的物流供给压力。基于VECM的Granger因果检验表明短期和长期内物流供给是投资的原因,投资又是出口的原因,因此物流供给是出口的间接原因。

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