碳排放强度与影响因素的关联程度，直接影响正确判断和把握碳排放强度的发展方向。通过分析碳排放强度及其影响因素的灰色关联度大小，来制定控制碳排放强度的短期和长期政策。文章基于美国橡树岭国家实验室二氧化碳信息分享中心(Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center，CDIAC)提供的我国2000-2011年全国碳排放量数据，核算出中国各年度的碳排放强度，通过采用灰色系统理论中灰色关联分析方法，分别从静态、动态的视角研究中国碳排放强度与技术进步、人口、经济增长、产业结构、能源价格以及城镇化率的关联关系，取得的研究结果表明，技术进步是影响我国碳排放强度的主要因素，其次是产业结构和人口；技术进步对碳排放强度的绝对关联关系和相对关联关系都是最大；能源价格影响碳排放强度的相对关联度较高，但是能源价格的绝对影响因素较低。因此中国应该在发展低碳经济建设的同时，综合考量各个影响因素，积极调整相关政策，科学实现我国碳减排目标。%The correlation of carbon intensity and its influencing factor affects the correct judgement and control of the developing direction of low-carbon economy. The short and long-term policies should be made to control carbon emissions according to the analysis of the gray correlation degree of carbon intensity and influencing factors. In this paper, carbon intensities of China from 2000 to 2011 were calculated according to carbon emissions data provided by Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. The paper investigates the relationship between China's carbon intensities and technological progress, population, economic growth, industrial structure, energy prices and the rate of urbanization respectively from the static and dynamic perspective by using gray relational analysis method in the gray system theory. The results show that technological progress is the major cause of increased carbon intensities, followed by industrial structure and population. Technological progress shows the dominant influence on carbon intensity of absolute correlation and relative correlation degree. Energy prices show greater influence on the carbon intensity of relative correlation degree than that of absolute influence factors. China should actively make policy adjustment in developing the low carbon economy construction by considering the various influencing factors and scientifically achieve the carbon reduction target in the future.
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