完成人口转型的发达国家中，土地、劳动力等传统农业生产要素已不再是农业增长的主要影响因素。而实际上人口转型已成为影响农业技术进步的决定性因素。文章基于1980-2000年14个已完成人口转型的发达国家面板数据的实证分析，通过农业技术与农业增长、人口转型与技术进步两个模型的检验结果，验证了发达国家农业人口数量的减少、受教育水平的提高对技术进步具有正向影响，通过对发达国家农业可持续增长的经验分析，得出中国农业可持续增长的关键为重视农村教育、加快农业人口转型以及提高农业科技投入。同时给出中国农业可持续增长的政策建议：利用教育投资的外溢效应促进农业人口转型，借助科技投入步入高效益农业可持续增长轨道。%Traditional agricultural production elements such as th land, the labor, is no longer the main influence factors of agricultural growth in the developed countries which have finished demographic transition .While the demographic transition is the decisive factors for the agricultural technology progress. This paper based on empirical analysis of 14 developed countries' panel data from 1980 to 2000. We set two models about the relationship between agriculture technology and agricultural growth, the relationship between the demographic transition and technological progress. The two models are verified the reduction in the number of agricultural population and the improvement of education level have a positive influence on technical progress. Through analyzing the agricultural sustainable growth in the developed world, it is concluded that the keys of agricultural sustainable growth in China are rural education, demographic transition and technological progress. The policy suggestion for China as follows, using the spillover effect of education investment to promote the agricultural demographic transition and increasing government investment in technology to ensure agricultural sustainable growth.
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