危机后世界经济恢复缓慢，外部需求持续低迷，中国商品出口贸易发展增速逐年放缓，为了深入探讨危机后中国商品出口贸易的发展，文章在分析主要贸易伙伴国（地区）经济发展的周期波动与中国商品出口贸易发展之间关系的基础上，建立了包含经济发展周期波动因素的面板数据模型，定量地研究了主要贸易伙伴国（地区）经济发展对中国商品出口贸易发展的影响效应。研究结果表明：主要贸易伙伴国（地区）的经济发展对中国商品出口贸易发展具有重要的影响，但在经济发展的不同周期阶段，其影响效应具有非对称性，经济发展处于繁荣阶段的拉动效应大于衰退阶段。最后分别从积极参与国际经济事务、促进产业结构转型升级等三个方面，对后危机时期中国商品出口贸易的发展提出了相应的建议。%After the crisis, the recovery of world's economy was slow, the foreign demand substantially downturn and the develop-ment of China's goods export was slowdown year after year. In order to study the development of China's goods export in post-crisis period , the paper analyzed the relationship between the business cycle of the main trading partners and the development of China's goods export , then established a panel data model which include the factor of business cycle, empirical research the effect of the main trading partners (regional)'s economic development on the China's goods export. The results showed that the main trading partners (regional)'s economic development had important effect on the development of China's goods export. But in the different economic development state , its effect on the China's goods export was asymmetry, the stimulating effect of boom state was greater than decline one. Finally, the paper proposed two recommendations for the development of China's goods export in the post-crisis period:actively participated in international economic affairs and promoted industrial restructuring and upgrading.
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