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后发经济体技术赶超中的转型陷阱

         

摘要

文章通过将中间产品生产厂商的异质性结构引入罗默三部门内生增长模型中,构建了一个基于垂直创新的技术进步模型。运用该模型对后发经济体技术赶超中不同阶段间过渡时存在的技术进步模式转型陷阱的问题进行理论性分析。通过研究发现,技术赶超过程中要依次经历专注模仿、模仿并且创新、专注创新三个阶段。后发经济体技术进步会从一个阶段进入下一个阶段,然而各个阶段间技术进步模式转型不是自然发生的,而是存在着转型陷阱。第一次转型会经历创新停滞陷阱,第二次转型可能会出现模仿陷阱,而陷入模仿陷阱的经济体在技术水平达到一定程度时会出现技术进步减缓甚至是倒退。后发经济体一旦陷入模仿陷阱将很难接近世界技术前沿,技术赶超也就无法实现。%Based on endogenous growth model given by Romer, the paper constructs a three-sector growth model with imitation and innovation. This paper analyzes the transition traps of technological advances modes, which exist in the transitions among different phases in the process of technological catch-up with the model. It suggests that technological catch-up of lagging economies will experience three phases in order, imitation, imitation and innovation, innovation. And the changes of technological advances modes don't occur with the phases from one to another, simultaneously. Certainly, there exist some transition traps, including innovation stagnation trap and imitation trap. The first transition will experience the innovation stagnation trap and the second transition may experience imitation trap. The technological level of the economies in imitation trap would improve lower or even becoming worse. If the lagging economies fall into the imitation trap, they are not going to access to the world technology frontier and would not realize the technological catch-up.

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