市场需求不确定条件下的订单农业供应链协调研究

摘要

Based on the characteristics of contract agriculture, the " Company +farmer" contract-farming supply chain model with risk-neutral companies and farmers is proposed. The paper analyzes the company and farmer's decision making behavior of the protection price contract by taking into account of the stochastic purchase price and the uncertainty of market demand. The results show that the the price mechanism of the company and farmers in the decentralized decision-making there is a bilinear effect. Therefore, in order to better achieve the coordination of supply chain, the "revenue sharing+two-way subsidy+franchise" type contract coordination mechanism is proposed and the the best revenue sharing coefficient and the range of franchise fee is derived. The results of numerical analysis show that the contract mechanism can realize the coordination of order supply chain, so that the company and farmers income to achieve Pareto improvement.%文章基于订单农业的特点,构建了由风险中性的公司与农户组成的"公司+农户"型订单农业供应链模型.在收购价格随机和市场需求不确定的条件下分析了传统订单农业价格机制"随行就市、保底收购"下公司和农户的决策行为,研究发现该价格机制下公司和农户在分散决策时存在双边际效应.因此,为了更好地实现供应链的协调,提出"收益共享+双向补贴+加盟金"型契约协调机制,并给出最优的收益共享系数以及加盟金的取值范围.数值分析结果表明该契约机制可以实现订单农业供应链的协调,使公司和农户收益实现帕累托改进.