基于动态计量经济学模型下的商业地产市场需求因素研究

摘要

In recent years,commercial real estate has become a new economic growth point in the industry of domestic real estate.In order to obtain the factors affecting the market demand for commercial real estate,the authors of this paper make a systematic analysis of market supply and demand for commercial real estate in view of the domestic real estate investment situation,and discuss the factors affecting the market demand for commercial real estate economically and so-cially.Then the authors,with Hefei in Anhui Province as an example,establish the equilibrium relationship between the market demand for commercial real estate and some other related factors with the market demand theory and the dynamic econometrics model,based on mathematical pro-cession of the relevant data,and finally give the trend of the actual market demand for commercial real estate.%近年来商业地产成为国内房地产领域的一个新的经济增长点，为正确把握商业地产在市场需求过程中受到哪些因素的影响，文章结合国内房地产的投资开发情况首先对商业地产的市场供需现状做了系统化的分析；进而以国内商业地产市场需求为导向，分别从经济和社会两个层面对影响商业地产市场需求的因素进行了讨论；最后以安徽省合肥市为例，将市场供需理论与动态计量经济学模型相结合，通过对相关数据的数学化处理，确立了商业地产市场需求与相关影响因素之间的均衡关系，最终以简明的形式给出了商业地产市场实际需求的变化趋势。