基于经济增长需求的河北省能源消费构成与预测分析

摘要

As an important production and living elements of a country or region , energy draws more and more attention of the government departments at various levels .Under the traditional economic development mode , economic growth will inevitably drive energy consumption's rapidly increasing .As a big province of en-ergy consumption , Hebei province should reasonably consume energy in meet the demand of economic devel -opment at the same time .Operable measures on energy development and consumption is a priority .In this pa-per, based on the energy consumption situation in Hebei province from 2008 to 2012, combined with the sta-tus quo of the current economic growth in Hebei province , from the energy consumption status , the situation of economic growth and industrial structure , we carries on the analysis of energy consumption respectively .We use grey prediction model to forecast the future energy consumption in Hebei province , and accordingly put forward the policy and strategy for energy development in Hebei province .%能源作为一个国家和地区国民经济增长的重要支柱和生产生活要素越来越引发各级政府部门的重视与关注。传统经济发展模式下，经济的增长必然会拉动能源消费的快速增加，河北省作为一个能源消费的大省在满足经济发展需求的同时如何做到能源的合理消费，制定具有可操作性的能源发展与消费措施是当务之急。本文基于2008－2012年间河北省能源消费情况，结合当前河北省经济增长的现状，分别从能源消费现状、经济增长现状、产业结构等方面对能源消费进行分析，利用灰色预测模型对河北省未来能源消费总量进行预测，并依此提出针对河北省能源发展的政策以及策略。