全球气候变暖的影响问题辨析

摘要

气候变暖对全球各领域及地区可能造成什么样的影响是气候变化相关研究中受关注的一个主题.本研究对全球观测数据和大量过去气候变化研究成果进行分析,针对几个关键问题就全球变暖对人类及其他物种造成不良后果的观点进行了辨析,包括气候模型可能存在的缺陷,冰川、海冰和海平面以及降雨量和水资源变化的不确定性,极端天气事件增强的可能性以及生物的适应能力,指出不宜简单地将所有灾害事件都直接归因于全球变暖,应该在全面科学评估的基础上趋利避害,从而达到更持续发展.%One attractive subject of climate change is that what effects have been caused by its warming on areas and regions around the world.By analyzing observational data and a large number of past related researches,we analyze several key issues of the view that the global warming may have adverse consequences on humans and other species,including the defects of climate models,the uncertainty of glaciers,sea ice and sea level changes,the uncertainty of precipitation and water resource changes,the possibility of increasing extreme weather events and biological adaptation.It is argued that we should not simply attribute all climatic disasters to the global warming,and more comprehensive scientific assessments and researches are needed to achieve sustainable development.