辨析“气候变暖”

摘要

近年来人们对＂气候变暖＂及其机制的争论达到了前所未有的程度,这可能是因为气候变化不再是单纯研究大气变化规律的科学,而变成一门与＂减排方案＂和＂征收碳税＂有关的政治与经济问题相联系,与国家经济利益有关的崭新课题.＂气候变暖＂既与利益有关,就会难免偏离公正,偏离纯理论科学.本研究对国内外＂气候变暖＂最新动态进行回顾分析,得出以下认识和结论.1）过去百年城市发展,极大地影响了器测温度数据,如果没有对＂热岛效应＂进行矫正,无疑高估了过去百年全球升温的幅度;2）过去百年全球有所变暖是事实,但不同学者增温估算不一致.不仅升温幅度不确定,而且人类和自然因素对升温贡献各占多少也不确定;如果考虑到城市发展对增温估算的影响,过去百年增温应当比0.4℃更低,远没有达到历史上次级波动的变化范围.3）尽管过去百年地球有所变暖,但在万年轨道尺度上,现在地球处于变冷的大趋势过程中.对现在气候变暖更合理解释,是属于变冷大趋势中的次级变暖波动;4）不论过去还是现在,大气CO2浓度变化总是落后于温度变化,即总是温度驱动着CO2变化,而不是CO2浓度驱动地球增温.%In recent years,controversy about global warming and its mechanism have reached an unprecedented level.Partly,this is due to the fact that climatic change is moving from a pure topic of atmospheric science and evolving into an issue associated with carbon reduction,carbon tax and other national interests.Since having been highly economy-linked,the issue may inevitably deviate from pure science discussion and leave room for unfairness to step in.Based on in-depth review and analysis,we come to conclusions as follows： 1）Because rapid urban development in last century had affected temperature measurements,the heating island effect should be considered to avoid the overestimation of global warming;2）The contributing factors,human or natural ones,of the warming during last century remain uncertain,so the warming rate may be 0.4 ℃ or even lower,if the heating island effect is corrected,;3）At 10 000-year time scale,global climate is in its cooling trend,in contrast to the warming at 100-year time scale,and the latter can be explained more reasonably as one of secondary fluctuations of the former;4）Either in the past or at present,the change of atmospheric CO2 concentration has always lagged behind that of temperature.In other words,temperature drives CO2 but not vice versa.