西南岩溶石山地区人地关系可持续发展状态的演变及调控研究--以贵州为例

摘要

为了解改革开放以来西南岩溶石山地区人地关系可持续发展状态演变规律与未来发展趋势，以贵州为例，基于生态足迹方法的可持续发展指数方法分析人地关系的演变特征，并用灰色系统灰色GM （l ，1）模型对发展趋势进行预测．结果表明：1978－1983年期间，贵州可持续发展指数在0.66～0.82之间，属于“中等”发展状态阶段；1984－1985年期间，贵州可持续发展指数在0.89～0.91之间，属于“差等”发展状态阶段；1986－2012年期间，贵州可持续发展指数在1.03～3.95之间，可持续发展状态属于“一般不可持续”状态阶段，且处于初期与中期阶段．预测表明，贵州可持续发展状态在2013－2020年期间为“一般不可持续”状态；从2021年开始，可持续发展状态为“严重不可持续”状态．在此基础上，提出了调控人地关系的对策．%The sustainable development of man land relationship is an important condition for regional eco‐nomic and social sustainable development .In order to grasp the evolution regular pattern of status of sus‐tainable development of man‐land relationship and future development trend since the reform and opening up in Karst rock mountain of southwest China ,with Guizhou Province as a case ,an investigation has been conducted in this paper to analyze the characteristics of the evolution of man land relationship based on in‐dicator of sustainable development ( ISD ) on ecological footprint method ,and with grey grey system GM (L ,1) model to predict the trend of their development .The results show that ,in the 1978-1983 years , the sustainable development indicator is between 0 .66 -0 .82 ,which belongs to the “moderate” develop‐ment stage;during 1984 -1985 years ,the sustainable development indicator is between 0 .89 -0 .91 , w hich belongs to the“poor”state of development stage ;in the 1986-2012 years ,Guizhou sustainable de‐velopment indicator between 1 .03-3 .95 ,the state of sustainable development of “not sustainable”stage , and in the early and middle stage .Projections indicate that the sustainable development of Guizhou state as“not sustainable” state during the period of 2013-2020 ;from the beginning of 2021 ,the state of sustain‐able development as a“serious not sustainable” state .On this basis ,some countermeasures has been put forward to control the man‐land relationship .