使用轨迹数据评价4种不同跟驰类型(类型1~4分别为小汽车跟随小汽车、小汽车跟随货车、货车跟随小汽车、货车跟随货车)对高速公路交织区追尾事故风险的影响.介绍了碰撞时间,并将其作为判断追尾事故风险的替代性安全指标,然后使用高速公路交织区的轨迹数据进行病例对照分析,在不同碰撞时间阈值下建立了3个logistic回归模型用于定量评价不同跟驰类型的影响,并对解释变量进行分析以期研究导致回归模型结果的可能原因.结果表明,当碰撞时间阈值等于2s时,第3种跟驰类型的追尾事故风险比第1种跟驰类型高3.167倍,而第2种类型和第4种类型的优势比都小于1,该结果代表更安全的状态.对解释变量的分析显示第3种类型拥有最大的速度差和最小的净距,这与交织区车辆运行特征相一致,也是更大追尾事故风险的原因.该研究揭示了高速公路交织区不同跟驰类型追尾事故风险的机理.%The impacts of four different car-following types on rear-end crash risks at a freeway weaving section were evaluated using trajectory data, in which Type 1 represents car following car, Type 2 represents car following truck, Type 3 represents truck following car and Type 4 represents truck following truck. The time to collision (TTC) was introduced as the surrogate safety measure to determine the rear-end crash risks. Then, the trajectory data at a freeway weaving section was used for the case-controlled analysis. Three logistic regression models were developed with different TTC thresholds to quantify the impacts of different car-following types. The explanatory factors were also analyzed to investigate possible reasons for the results of logistic regressions. Results show that the rear-end crash risk of Type 3 is 3.167 times higher than that of Type 1 when the TTC threshold is 2 s. However, the odds ratios of Type 2 and Type 4 are both smaller than 1, which indicates a safer condition. The analysis of explanatory factors also shows that Type 3 has the largest speed differences and the smallest net gaps. This is consistent with vehicle operation features at a weaving section and is also the reason for the larger rear-end crash risks. The results of this study reflect the mechanism of rear-end crash risks of different car-following types at the freeway weaving section.
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