Based on the tracking prediction of “the 5th and 6th census” data, and the analysis from the aspects of the urbanization rate , potential coefficient and three-force model , we come to the conclusion that the cumulative transfer population in the rural areas will reach about 0.3-0.35 billion in 2030, and the scale , potential and power of the rural transfer population in the future are still relatively large .Be-cause of this, we suggest that the country may choose three kinds of spatial distribution patterns for the transfer population:the traditional geographical region “groups”, the national “main functional areas”, and the urbanized “scale structure”.Meanwhile , around the distribution modes of “dispersion”, “fo-cus”,“optimization”, government should implement corresponding policies and recommendations , in or-der to crack the related space distribution problems of the rural transfer population .%基于“五普”与“六普”数据的追踪预测，从城镇化率、潜力系数、“三力模型”三个方面进行分析，得出结论：2030年农村累积转移人口数将达3～3．5亿左右，农村未来转移人口的规模、潜力及动力仍然比较大。鉴于此，国家可以尝试选择：传统地理大区“组团”、国家“主体功能区”规划、城镇化率“等级规模结构”这三种转移人口分布的空间模式。同时，围绕“分散”、“集中”、“优化”的分布方式，实施相应的政策建议，以破解农村转移人口分布的空间选择及相关问题。
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