层次分析—模糊综合评判联合法在常绿杜鹃花引种气候适宜区位预测中的应用

摘要

在常绿杜鹃花的迁地引种过程中,一个重要的问题是评判可能引种区域的引种适宜度。本文针对这个问题,基于杜鹃花生长的气候适宜条件,利用层次分析法和模糊综合评判法分别作出了引种适宜区位的预测与评估;并联合两种预测方法对8个备选引种地区的引种适宜度作了讨论。基于这种联合预测方法,对8个备选引种区域按照引种适宜度进行了排序和分级：成都、贵阳划入A级;日照划入B级;青岛、东台、上海、威海划入C级;大连划入D级;然后围绕这一结果,给出了必要的分析并与之前的研究结果作了对比。最后,还从方法论的角度就层次分析-模糊综合评判联合法在解决复杂决策问题中的应用进行了讨论。%In the ex-situ introduction of evergreen rhododendron,an important issue is to evaluate the suitability of the possible region according to the climatic adaptability of the rhododendron.Based on the climate conditions that are suitable to the growth of the rhododendron,this study predicts and evaluates the suitability of the possible region with AHP and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation respectively.Moreover,a combined scheme of the two aforementioned methods is developed to discuss the suitability of the 8 optional introduction regions.Based on the combined scheme,the 8 optional regions are ranked and classified according to their suitability：Chengdu and Guiyang are classified in Class A;Rizhao falls into Class B;Qingdao,Dongtai,Shanghai and Weihai are in Class C while Dalian is in Class D.Then this result is analyzed and compared to that of the previous study.At last,from the perspective of methodology,this study further discusses the application of the combined scheme when meeting complex decision problems.