指数型有寿件备件需求预测模型

摘要

针对有寿件工作寿命分布不确定、备件数量难预测的问题,建立了一种基于正态近似的指数型有寿件备件需求预测模型;首先通过贝叶斯理论将有寿件的工作寿命分布近似为正态分布;然后利用正态分布的可加性建立其备件保障概率模型;最后在算例中通过与仿真结果的对比表明:本文模型能较为准确地计算备件需求量及备件保障概率,满足实际工程应用要求.%For the problem of uncertainty of work life distribution and difficulty in predicting demands for life-limited spares,a prediction model of demands for life-limited spares with exponential distribution is built based on approximate normal distribution.At first,work life of life-limited spares is approximate normal distribution based on Bayesian theory;Then Fill Rate model is got based on additive property of normal distribution;Finally,compared with simulation results,the example shows that this model can calculate the spares demand and its fill rate more accurately,and can meet demands of practical engineering application.