The hit probability is an important indicator to measure the operational effectiveness of active mines.In order to solve this problem,this paper first briefly introduced the working process of the active attack mine,and the test statistical problem of mine hit probability were analyzed,and the method which used separate tests to obtain mine's hit probability was proposed.By theoretical analysis and formula deduction,a set of statistical model of active attack mine's hit probability was built.The statistical model which was verified by computer programming simulation was proved to be effective.This effort lays the foundation of underwater armament test and mine blocking efficacy analyzing for follow-up work.The test method witch was put by this paper uhimately was approved by the relevant units,and the implementation of this test method has been carried out.%命中概率是衡量区域攻击水雷作战效能的关键指标;围绕解决该项指标考核问题,在简要介绍区域攻击水雷工作过程的基础上,对水雷的攻击命中概率试验统计问题进行了剖析,提出运用分项试验获得水雷命中概率的基本办法,通过理论分析与公式推导,建立了一整套区域攻击水雷命中概率的试验统计模型,并通过计算机编程仿真,验证了统计模型的有效性;为后续装备鉴定和水雷障碍效率分析奠定了基础;本统计模型最终形成试验方案,通过了相关单位的评审,得以工程实施.
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