基于时间序列与灰色理论的油料组合预测方法

摘要

为提高油料消耗量的预测精度,建立了基于灰色理论和时间序列的油料消耗量组合预测模型;更好地挖掘了两种方法所隐含的数据规律,使单一预测模型中存在的不确定性得到分散;算例结果表明:组合预测模型的预测结果更贴近于真实数据,预测精确度更高、误差更小,将该模型用于油料消耗量预测是可行的.%In order to improve the prediction precision of oil consumption,a combination forecasting model of oil consumption based on grey theory and time series is established.It is better to excavate the data rules implied by the two forecasting methods,so that the uncertainties in the single prediction model are dispersed.The results show that the prediction results of the combined forecasting model are closer to the real data,the prediction accuracy is higher and the error is smaller,and it is feasible to use the model in the prediction of oil consumption.