松材线虫病疫情指数与气候因素之间的关系

摘要

[Objective] T he main purpose was to explore the relationship between weather variation and pine wilt disease (PWD) development in Yiling district ,Hubei Province .[M ethods] T he research focused on the infected M asson pine forest ecosystem in Yiling district .T he correlation analysis ,principal component analysis and redundancy analysis were conducted to reveal the effects of weather conditions on the pine wilt disease development from 2006 to 2013 .[Results] (1) T he weather conditions from 2004 to 2006 ,two years prior to PWD occurred ,showed a higher temperature ,lower precipitation ,and lower relative humidity than the average historic data .(2) During the severe PWD damage year ,the study area experienced higher temperature and lower relative humidity , while it was higher relative humidity and strong precipitation during the slight PWD damage years .(3) T he RDA results indicated that the higher monthly rela-tive humidity was ,the wider the pine wilt disease was spread among M asson pine forest ecosystem .T he higher the monthly mean wind speed was ,the faster the pine sawyer beetle was spread .With the increase of the highest average temperature ,the mean temperature ,and the hours of sunshine ,the number of pine wilt disease damaged M asson pine stems and damaged areas were increased ;on the contrary ,the number of dead trees and damaged areas were decrease . [Conclusion] T he study indicated that the number of PWD damaged sites and the number of PWD damaged M asson pine stems were the major indicators for the intensity of PWD epidemic degrees in Yiling district .T he main climatic factors that closely related to the outbreak of pine wilt disease included monthly mean temperature ,the monthly high-est temperature ,monthly mean relative humidity ,and yearly precipitation .T he results will provide a key scientific the-oretical basis for the monitoring ,early warning and management of the PSB and PWN .%[目的]分析松材线虫病各疫情指数之间的关系以及不同气候因素对松材线虫病发病程度的影响规律. [方法]以湖北省宜昌市夷陵区遭受松材线虫病危害的马尾松林生态系统为研究对象,获取其2006—2013年松材线虫病疫情指数数据和发病年份主要气候因子数据,结合数学方法来定量分析不同年份松材线虫病疫情指数与气候因子的关系. [结果](1)松材线虫病发病前两年气候条件表现为:年平均气温明显要高于历年平均值,降水量和平均相对湿度要低于历年平均值,整体表现出高温干旱的气候条件;(2)松材线虫发病程度严重的年份,夷陵区主要表现出高温、低湿的气候条件;松材线虫病危害程度较轻的年份,则主要表现出强降水量、相对湿度较高的气候条件;(3)RDA分析表明,月相对湿度较高的气候因素有助于松材线虫病在各个林班之间的扩散传播,月平均风速增大时有利于松材线虫的媒介昆虫松墨天牛进行远距离的传播扩散,月平均最高气温、月平均气温和月日照时数的增加,会导致马尾松病死总株数和危害面积的增大.[结论]明确马尾松发病林班个数和病死总株数是评估夷陵区内松材线虫病危害程度最重要的指标,月平均气温、月平均最高气温、月平均相对湿度和年降水量是主导松材线虫病疫情发生的主要气候因子.预期研究结果有助于预测松材线虫及松墨天牛种群动态变化,为松材线虫病的预警和防控管理提供科学理论依据.