降水量对旱地冬小麦产量的影响

摘要

The precipitation data and unit yield data of winter wheat in 1985-2008 in Linyi County,Yuncheng were taken as researched object to analyze the relationship of the precipitation and soil moisture water in different growth stages with the winter wheat yield. Main period of the precipitation which affected the yield of the winter wheat were identified by correlation analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis. The research constructed the model of the relationship between the precipitation and yield of winter wheat. We found the defect of the model through a comparative analysis between forecast value and measured value and regression analysis: the soil moisture water and the overwintering-greenup period measures which protected winter wheat against freezing were the most important effects on the unit yield data of winter wheat. This paper proposes some coping tactics in this regard in test fields.%通过对运城市临猗县试验田1985-2008年的降水量和产量数据进行分析,探讨不同生育期降水量和底墒水对冬小麦产量的影响,并通过相关性分析和多元回归分析,找到对冬小麦产量影响最大的阶段降水量,从而构建出用降水量对冬小麦产量进行预测的模型.再经过预测值和实测值之间的对比分析,找到模型的不足.结果发现,制约试验田冬小麦产量的因素在于底墒水和越冬—返青期的防冻保苗措施,并针对性地提出相应的农业技术措施.