应用MaxEnt模型预测检疫性杂草毒莴苣在我国的潜分布范围

摘要

Lactuca serriola L. ,originated from Europe,has been invading into China in recent years. Based on 51 Environmental variables and 6 637 records of Lactuca serriola in the world, its potential distribution was quantitatively predicted by MaxEnt ecological niche model and the software of ArcGis 9. 3. The prediction was confirmed by ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve. The results showed that Lactuca serriola has a wide range of potential distribution regions including Shanghai,Jiangsu,Shandong, Anhui,Henan,Shanxi, Yunnan, Hubei and some other places. The actual distribution of L. Serriola is far narrower than its maximum range of potential distribution. Therefore,more attention should be paid to the monitoring and integrated management of L. Serriola.%毒莴苣(Lactuca serriola L.)原产欧洲,是近年来传入我国的新外来入侵植物.本文基于51种环境因子和毒莴苣在全球6 637个地理分布记录,应用MaxEnt模型和ArcGis 9.3软件,定量地预测了毒莴苣在我国的潜在分布区域和风险等级,结果得到了ROC曲线分析法的验证.发现10月到第2年3月的温度是影响毒莴苣在全球多度分布的主要环境因素.预测结果表明,毒莴苣在我国有很广的潜在分布区,其中上海、江苏、山东、安徽、河南、陕西、云南、湖北等省区等地是毒莴苣的高风险区域,目前毒莴苣的实际分布远未达其最大潜在分布范围,因此应该加强对毒莴苣的监测和综合管理.