中美贸易与我国经济波动

摘要

通过建立多变量VAR模型以及脉冲响应分析和方差分解,利用1972-2007年相关数据,重点考察分析中美贸易变化与我国经济波动之间的动态关系,可得结果：作为内生变量,中美贸易是在与世界经济以及我国经济的相互影响过程之中对我国经济形成冲击,且表现为明显的周期性,但中美贸易变化并不是影响我国经济波动的主导性因素。%The paper constructs a multivariable VAR model and uses the impulse response function and variance decompositions technology,based on the annual data of 1972-2007.We mainly analyze the dynamic relationship of Sino-USA trade movement and China economic fluctuation.The results show that： Sino-USA trade,world economy and China economy interact as endogenous variables;Sino-USA trade has periodic impact on China economy： short-term positive effect turns into medium-term negative effect,and long-term effect converges on faintish positive effect.However,Sino-USA trade is not the major factor affecting Chinese economy,which is mainly influenced by inner economic factors.