Utilizing the Time Varying Parameter Model (TVP) ,this paper studies the determinants of international capital inflow s in China form Jan 1999 to Oct 2014 . T he result show s that determinants of international capital inflow are time varying obviously .The long‐term international capital inflows are mainly affected by Pull Factors such as economic growth and real rate .The short‐term international capital inflow s are affected by Push Factors and Pull Factors at the same time , and the sensibility to Push Factors and exchange rate fluctuation is rising obviously .It means that the short‐term international capital inflows are much more easily being affected by external factors .%基于1999年1月至2014年10月的月度数据建立时变参数(TVP)模型,实证分析我国资本流动的决定因素及其变化趋势。结果表明:我国国际资本流入决定因素表现出典型的时变特征,其中长期国际资本流入主要受经济增长速度和实际利率水平等国内因素影响,敏感性呈逐步上升的趋势,对国际推力因素变化的敏感性总体上比较平稳;短期国际资本流入受国际推力因素和国内拉力因素的影响都比较明显,危机后短期国际资本流入对国际推力因素变化和汇率波动的敏感性上升,成为导致国际资本流入波动性增大的主要原因。在有序推动我国资本账户开放的同时,应进一步完善宏观审慎视角下的国际资本流入管理框架,增强宏观经济政策和审慎管理工具的协调配合,防范国际资本流入对经济金融体系稳定的冲击。
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机译:The Impacts of Margin Trading on Rate of Return and Volatility in the Stock Market: A Study Using the SVAR Model and Panel Regressions =融资对股价收益与波动的影响特征研究——基于SVAR模型与面板模型的实证分析