基于改进TOPSIS方法的航空装备预研项目技术风险评估

摘要

技术风险是引发费用风险和进度风险的主要因素,因此在航空装备的研制中需要重点管控和规避.为提供可靠的航空装备预研项目技术方案的选择依据,采用改进的TOPSIS方法对五种不同航空装备预研方案的技术风险进行了定量评估,技术风险评价指标体系包括成熟性、复杂性、先进性、安全性、经济性、保障性、兼容性和标准化八个指标.利用熵值赋权法求得指标权重,双基点间的投影距离代替传统的相对欧式距离对TOPSIS方法进行了改进.实例分析中,通过编程计算对某航空预研项目的五种技术方案进行了定量风险评估,根据风险优属度确立了较为优化的技术方案.结果表明,该方法较主观赋权法更为科学、客观,为航空预研方案的初选提供了可靠参考.%Technical risk can lead to cost risk and development risk, so effective measures should be taken to management, control and avoid the technical risk in aviation development project.In order to provide reliable reference for choosing technical scheme in the development of aviation equipment, the ameliorated TOPSIS method was used to quantificationally evaluate the technical risk of five different aviation equipment development projects, and the technical risk appraise index system included eight indexes such as maturity, complexity, advance, safety, economy, support, compatibility and standardization.The entropy weighted method was applied to get the index weight,and projection distance between double base points was used to substitute traditional opposite continental distance to ameliorate the TOPSIS method.In the example analysis, the said model was used to conduct the evaluation of five risk schemes of aviation beforehand project by programming and computation, the excellent risk scheme was radieated.It showed that the ameliorated TOPSIS method was more scientific and in-subjective than subjective weighted method, it provide a new method for the choosing of technical scheme in the development of aviation equipment.