According to the traffic accident data on a section of the Beijing-Shanghai expressway in five years, the quarterly seasonal index of traffic accident was calculated, and the conclusion was drawn that the traffic accidents change significantly every season. Whate' s more, seasonal indexes of week, month, day, 24 hours were calculated and its trends were analyzed furtherly. Consequently, It showed that the traffic accident peak appears in the first quarter, January, February, April, October, the beginning and the end of a month, and at 1 a. m. , 10 a. m. , 4 p. m.. At last but not the least, a seasonal forecasting model was established according to the seasonal index, and the number of traffic accidents was predicted as 619 in 2012. This method will play an important role in seasonal variation law of other highway. The research conclusion will be a guideline to adopt different security measures to reduce the traffic accidents on expressway in different times.%根据京沪高速某段近五年的交通事故数据,首先通过测算该段交通事故的季度季节性指标,得出该段交通事故的季节变动程度明显；其次通过进一步测算交通事故的月份、星期、年均日、年均日24小时季节性指标和分析其趋势,得出该段交通事故高峰期出现在一季度,1月、2月、4月、10月,每月的月初和月末以及每天的凌晨1点左右、上午10点左右、下午4点左右；最后根据季节性指标构建了季节性预测模型.研究方法对其他高速公路季节变动规律分析具有参考作用,研究结论对不同时间内如何采取不同的安全对策来降低高速公路交通事故具有指导作用.
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