基于模糊数学的民航航路鸟击概率计算模型研究

摘要

With the continuous improvement of global environment , as well as the operation of quieter and greater passenger jet , route bird strike has gradually become one of the important factors which threatens the civil aviation safety .25888 route bird strikes occurred in the American were analyzed to determine the influencing factors of route bird strike , and a calculating model of route bird strike probability was estabished based on fuzzy comprehensive e -valuation method and AHP .The model can predict the collision probability of specified flight in a specified time pe-riod, a specified height with certain kind of bird , thus the flight plan makers can revise the flight paths according to it, and the crew can also take prevention programs in advance to guarantee the safety and reduce the economic los-ses .%随着全球生态环境的不断改善，以及噪音更小进气口更大的喷气式客机的投入运营，航路鸟击日益成为威胁民航安全的重要因素之一。以美国25888条航路鸟击事件为例，通过对其进行分析和统计，确定出航路鸟击的影响因素，并构建了基于模糊综合评价法和层次分析法的航路鸟击概率计算模型；该模型能够用来预测某一航班在指定时间段，指定高度受到某种鸟类撞击的概率值，飞行计划制定人员可以根据该值是否可接受来调整飞行路线，机组也可以提前做好防范预案，从而降低航路鸟击造成的经济损失，确保人员安全，保障飞机在航路上的安全运行。