案例-数据集成驱动的CI抗灾能力评估指标选择

摘要

The critical infrastructure (CI) is the key component supporting the normal running of social system, and it is a complex and huge network system. It is necessary to guarantee the systematicness,objectivity and consistency of the assess-ment indexes for the CI anti-disaster capacity. The case-driven and data-driven methods have their own advantages and sup-port each other in the selection of capacity assessment indexes. Relying on the case-driven method can master the historical experience and guide the scenario design and the selection and improvement of global indexes for the CI anti-disaster capacity assessment. With the help of data-driven method can identify the potential micro indexes and guide the improvement and per-fection of micro index system for the anti-disaster capacity assessment through the data analysis. Integrating these two assess-ment driven methods,a case-data integrated driven framework about the selection of assessment indexes for the CI anti-disas-ter capacity was put forward,and the effectiveness of the assessment method was verified by the case.%关键基础设施(CI)是维持社会大系统正常运行的重要组成部分,是复杂的网络巨系统,而CI抗灾能力评估指标需具有系统性、客观性和一致性.案例驱动与数据驱动在能力评估指标选择中各有优势,亦相互支持.依靠案例驱动,可以把握历史经验,引导CI抗灾能力评估的情景设计及全局指标选择改进;借助数据驱动,可以发现潜在的微观指标,通过数据分析引导抗灾能力评估微观指标体系改进与完善.集成这2种评估驱动方法,提出CI抗灾能力评估指标选择的案例-数据集成驱动框架,并结合用例验证评估方法的有效性.